The Complex Links Between Food Security, Migration, & Fragility in Central America

This report examines the interlinked dynamics of fragility, food insecurity, shocks, and migration in the Northern Central America (NCA) region, composed of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. In recent years, food insecurity and migration (including a recent trend of return and reverse migration) have emerged as deeply interconnected challenges driven by a combination of economic hardship, climate shocks, and long-standing fragility. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent food and fertilizer price crises significantly worsened food insecurity across the region, while factors such as drought, hurricanes, crop failures, and social instability have pushed households towards migration. While most of the existing literature on NCA countries examines bilateral relationships in isolation (shocks and food insecurity, food insecurity and migration, or migration and remittances), the contribution of this study is to simultaneously capture shock exposure, food security, and migration dynamics within the same households, also incorporating structural fragility as a key conditioning factor. Although migration has an inherently dual nature (an aspirational income diversification strategy, in addition to a reactive coping mechanism), the distinct focus of this report is specifically on the drivers of distress-driven migration. Drawing on household survey data, econometric analysis, qualitative interviews, and review of secondary data and literature, the report aims to generate evidence to inform more effective policies and investments to reduce hunger, build resilience, and address the root causes of forced migration.