In a rapidly evolving risk landscape, Germany faces the need to enhance its disaster and emergency preparedness capabilities. The country faces rapidly evolving natural hazards. Extreme climate events are already inflicting massive damage, with economic losses estimated to exceed €80 billion in the period from 2018 to 2022 alone. Climate hazards are projected to further intensify, estimated at €280–900 billion by 2050.

Yet natural shocks rarely occur in isolation, as technological, public health, economic, and geopolitical factors amplify complex, compound and cascading risks. As global risks—from conflicts and cyber disruptions to extreme weather and resource shocks— increasingly intersect, Germany is confronted with the need to strengthen multi-hazard disaster risk management (DRM) and civil protection systems to manage complex, cascading crises.

The new report, The Economic Case for Investing in Disaster Preparedness and Resilience, presents a strong economic case for investing in Germany’s disaster and emergency preparedness. Specifically, this report aims to help policymakers identify and prioritize the most urgent and cost-effective opportunities to bolster the country’s resilience, thereby improving preparedness not only for climate-related disasters, but for a wide range of future shocks.

“Through this project we are able to articulate a stronger economic case for ex-ante disaster preparedness measures and raise awareness of the critical role of civil protection capabilities in a context of intensifying and inter-dependent risks,” said Dr. René Funk, Vice President of Germany’s Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK).

The report emphasizes the high benefit-cost ratios and multiple benefits of resilience investments that can arise regardless of whether a disaster hits. The report shows that as risks in the country evolve, so too must the solutions, thus requiring continuous efforts to monitor risks and strengthen civil protection capabilities. 

Investments in Europe consistently demonstrate high economic returns, with benefit-cost ratios ranging from €2–10 per €1 invested. Results from the literature and the new analysis presented in this report show that, in Germany, every €1 invested in disaster preparedness and prevention yields a median economic return of €2–6, with some individual estimates being as high as €500.

Key findings and recommendations from the report include:

• The complex intersection of natural and technological (Natech) hazards presents a significant and escalating national security concern for Germany’s highly industrialized landscape.
• Floods remain Germany’s costliest extreme weather event and require a stepping up of integrated flood risk management strategies and accelerated civil protection capabilities in underprotected areas.
• Extreme heat is a rapidly intensifying public health and productivity threat, particularly in urban areas, demanding the nationwide scaling up of high-yield adaptation measures. A dedicated background report covers this topic in depth.
• Wildfire risk is escalating rapidly across Germany, necessitating targeted investments in early detection technology, long-term forest resilience, and protection of highly exposed critical assets and industrial facilities.
• Strengthening emergency preparedness and civil protection while building infrastructure and ecosystem resilience provides a robust path forward, delivering tangible benefits irrespective of when disasters occur.
• With escalating climate impacts and future cumulative climate costs projected to reach up to €900 billion by 2050, proactive investment in multi-hazard resilience is an economic imperative for Germany.

This report forms part of technical assistance under the Technical Assistance Financing Facility (TAFF), financed by the European Commission—Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations—and implemented by the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). This technical assistance is delivered in partnership with the German Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance as part of the 2024 TAFF allocation for country-specific activities, under the title “Return of Investments in Disaster Resilience Measures: Identifying measures & generating evidence to inform decision-making in Germany.”