An increasing number of countries are affected by recurring natural hazards and protracted crises associated with fragility, conflict and violence (FCV), which are mutually reinforcing and often exacerbated by climate change. FCV are important drivers of disaster risk, conversely, disaster risk may exacerbate pre-existing conflicts and increase the risk of violence.
The GFDRR DRM-FCV Nexus Program is an effort to support a systematic cross-fertilization and collaboration across disaster risk management, conflict prevention and peacebuilding communities to increasie resilience to climate and disasters. The main objectives of the program are:
- Develop and support adapted FCV engagements that apply DRM knowledge and tools and address the interlinkages between FCV, disaster and climate risks.
- Develop and support adapted DRM engagements that are appropriate and effective in FCV settings.
The program also aims to develop integrated multi-risks analysis tools and tailored capacity building, to provide technical expertise and analytical knowledge and to forge partnerships with humanitarian and development partners to assist World Bank client countries in integrating DRM and FCV engagements in their strategic plans, work programs and operations.
From FY16-FY20, GFDRR supported engagements in 35 fragile and conflict affected countries with $47.5 million in grant commitments. These engagements include:
Papua New Guinea
The DRM-FCV Nexus Program supported the government of Papua New Guinea in developing a sub-regional risk profile analysis in the southern highland provinces and the autonomous island province of Bougainville, which found that the lack of clear attribution of conflict sensitivity to climate change or disaster could create conflict due to misplaced blame. Further, the analysis demonstrated how top-down efforts on climate change and disaster preparedness have been shaped with a classic policy and legal focus; some lateral lines have been built but these have been varied in their effectiveness.
The DRM-FCV Nexus Program supported a cross-disciplinary workshop to develop a multi-sector risk framework to be integrated into Cyclone-Idai early recovery efforts. The framework helped to understand how the cyclone and response efforts might impact several other fragility related risks in Zimbabwe.
The DRM-FCV Nexus Program has financed a detailed vulnerability map of Maputo, which is helping the government prioritize funds from existing infrastructure investments to benefit 200,000 citizens in the capital city’s most vulnerable neighborhoods. This research was action oriented, innovative, and done collaboratively, focusing on the intersectionality of poverty, urban crime, gender-based violence, and climate change in Maputo. Through a data-driven approach, multiple geospatial layers were analyzed to capture key aspects of disadvantaged neighborhoods and a prioritization framework was developed which included three primary components: flood risk; poverty levels; and access to infrastructure services. This project shows that using machine learning techniques can address data gaps, particularly in an FCV context where data is not easily available.
Violent conflict undermines the capacity of governments to provide Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and reduces the coping capacities of communities. In Somalia, decades of conflict have weakened the ability of the government to address the severe drought risk. Since the 1990s, a combination of droughts and the impacts of violent conflict have led to two major famines (1992, 2011) that killed hundreds of thousands of people and affected millions more.
Conflict also leads to forced displacement and the displaced families often have no other option but to settle in hazard-prone areas. Since August 2017 for instance, more than 670,000 members of the Rohingya community have fled from Myanmar into the Cox’s Bazar area of Bangladesh, where they are exposed to cyclones, flooding, and landslides.
Fragility also complicates post-disaster operations. To be successful these require not only technical and financial resources, but also a functioning government and - more importantly - resilient communities. Haiti is a classic example of how daunting international disaster response can be when an already fragile country is affected by a series of hurricanes (2008) that is followed by a massive earthquake (2010).
The mutual reinforcement of disaster and FCV-related risks also works in the opposite direction. Conflict-blind response to disasters can deepen grievances and existing tensions between different social groups and trigger violence. When a 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Highlands of Papua New Guinea in 2018, a surge in violence was triggered by frustration at the slow delivery of disaster relief. The severity of the violence made the affected regions inaccessible to outsiders and triggered a police operation that disrupted and further delayed the distribution of earthquake relief supplies.
Disasters also add to the misery of people living in countries affected by ongoing violent conflicts. In 2018, an estimated 260,000 Afghans were forced to leave their homes in northern and western Afghanistan due to a severe drought. This drought displaced more people than the conflict with the Taliban.
- GFDRR/GIZ - Disasters, Conflict and Fragility: A Joint Agenda
- Draft Note on GFDRR’s Engagement in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence
- GFDRR Annual Report 2019
- GFDRR Annual Report 2018
- UNDP - Managing climate and disaster risk in fragile states
- UNDP - The nexus of climate change and conflict in the Arab region
- ODI - Disaster risk reduction in conflict contexts: an agenda for action
- UNDRR - Disaster risk reduction in contexts of fragility and armed conflict: a review of emerging evidence challenges assumptions
- Blog: Fighting climate change in the world’s poorest countries
- Blog: A practical agenda for addressing climate-related conflict
- Strategy: World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025
- Website: Fragility, Conflict & Violence World Bank FCV Website
- Publication: Pathways for Peace a joint United Nations–World Bank Group study
- Publication: Disaster Recovery in Conflict Contexts
- Discussion Paper: Disasters, Conflict and Fragility: A Joint Agenda
- Book: Forcibly Displaced : Toward a Development Approach Supporting Refugees, the Internally Displaced, and Their Hosts
- Event: Fragility Forum 2018: Managing Risks for Peace and Stability
- Event: Delivering Disaster Risk Reduction in Contexts Affected by Fragility, Conflict, Insecurity and Violence
- Event: UR10 - Crossroads: Managing Intersecting Risks of Conflict, Violence, Disasters and Climate Change
- Video: When disasters and conflicts collide: Colombia
- Video: The DRM funding gap in fragile, conflict, and violence-affected countries
- Video: FCV Forum 2016 Resilience Dialogue: Disaster Risk and Conflict