An important component of the report was the Distinguished Seminar Series designed to solicit inputs, ideas, and encourage debate on selected themes of the Report. Individuals who contributed in these Series are Kenneth Arrow, Bruce Babbitt, Freeman Dyson, Daniel Kahneman, Homi Kharas, Howard Kunreuther, Wangari Maathai, Robert Mendelsohn, William Nordhaus, Edward C. Prescott, Richard Posner, Thomas Schelling, John Seo, and Martin Weitzman. Links to select events are available below
Time Inconsistent Traps: Bailouts for all When Credible to None
April 24, 2009 – 1 hr 43 minutes
On April 24, 2009 Nobel Laureate Edward Prescott gave the lecture “Time Inconsistent Traps: Bailouts for all When Credible to None.” Contributing discussion came from World Bank economists Shantayanan Devarajan (Chief Economist, Africa Region) and Vikram Nehru (Director, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, East Asia and Pacific Region.) The event was moderated by the Apurva Sanghi, the Bank’s Senior Economist of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).
According to Prescott, a natural disaster is a natural risk that exists only if there are people around that can be hurt by it. He cited Hurricane Katrina, explaining that, “it was a disaster because people where living where they should not have been living.” He drew parallels between natural disasters and man-made ones in the context of the current financial situation, highlighting the issue of governments ability to credibly commit to risk reducing policies and actions.
Following the event, Devarajan and Nehru offered views of time inconsistent bailouts. The session concluded with questions and answers with from the audience.
When Nature's Forces Meet Degraded Environments
April 14, 2009
On this rare occasion, Wangari Maathai, 2004 Nobel Peace Prize Winner, Bruce Babbitt, Chairman of the World Wildlife Fund, and Thomas Friedman, New York Times Columnist, engaged in a discussion on the future of environmental management of natural disasters.
Dealing with Low Probability - High Consequence Events: A Behavioral Economics of Risk Presentation
September 24, 2008 – 1 hrs 36 minutes
Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Laureate) and Howard Kunreuther (University of Pennsylvania)
What are the odds that a tsunami hit the coast of a South Asian country? What are the chances that a mudslide fall on a village in Nicaragua this year? These are the types of questions that risk behavior specialists study every day. In the lecture Dealing with Low Probability-High Consequence Events: A Behavioral Economics of Risk Presentation, World Bank Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Justin Lin introduces Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs of Princeton University, Daniel Kahneman and Professor of Decision Sciences and Public Policy of the Wharton School, Howard Kunreuther to discuss human behavioral patterns in undertaking mitigation strategies to assess these types of risks . They discussed the role of behavioral economics, using a real-time experiment on the findings of the behavioral economics of risk as applied to natural disasters. The event was moderated by Apurva Sanghi, Senior Economist of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery of the World Bank.
Climate Change and Disasters – Risk and Policy
September 11, 2008
On September 11th, 2008, the World Bank presented an event entitled Climate Change and Disasters – Risk and Policy. Moderated by Apurva Sanghi, Senior Economist for the World Bank, the discussion was based on William Nordhaus’s research and recent book, centered around climate change induced disasters and global warming policies. Eminent physicist Freeman Dyson critically discussed Professor Nordhaus' presentation.
60 Minutes With Nobel Laureate Kenneth J. Arrow
March 27, 2008 – 2 hrs 29 minutes
Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate) as discussant.
Climate change is one of the defining issues of our times. However, there is little consensus among economists on the issue of impacts of climate change, and discounting and uncertainty are two key reasons why. This is especially true for climate change induced catastrophes (a topic that is discussed in the Report). On March 27 2008, 1972 Nobel Laureate in Economics, Kenneth Arrow, and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University shared his views on discounting for projects that have payoffs in the deep and uncertain future. Thomas Schelling, 2005 Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland participated by providing critical commentary on Arrow’s presentation.
Will God - or Man - Play Dice with Nature? The ‘Tail’ of Catastrophic Climate Change
February 2, 2008 – 2 hrs 18 minutes
Presentation by Martin Weitzman (Harvard) with Richard Posner (University of Chicago), Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate) and John Seo (pioneer of the catastrophe bond industry) as discussant.
Discussions on climate change economics, policy, and related climate-induced disasters have so far neglected the possibility of catastrophic climate change. Climate scientists agree that though the probability is very low, climate change of cataclysmic proportions could occur and the effects would be nothing short of complete devastation. The event, “Will God- or Man- Play Dice with Nature? The ‘Tail’ of Catastrophic Climate Change”, held at the World Bank Headquarters on March 13th 2008 brought together a group of renowned economists and perspectives from the private sector, public policy, and development experts to discuss this issue.
