World Bank and United Nations Economics of Disaster Risks Distinguished Seminar Series was launched as part of the World Bank–UN Assessment on the Economics of Disaster Risk Reduction. This series – which has included 5 Nobel laureates – is designed to contribute ideas by individuals such as Kenneth Arrow, Freeman Dyson, Daniel Kahneman, Howard Kunreuther, Wangari Maathai, William Nordhaus, Edward Prescott, Richard Posner, Thomas Schelling, John Seo, Martin Weitzman, and others on selected themes of the Assessment outlined below.
Time Inconsistent Traps: Bailouts for all When Credible to None
April 24, 2009 – 1 hr 43 minutes
On April 24, 2009 Nobel Laureate Edward Prescott gave the lecture “Time Inconsistent Traps: Bailouts for all When Credible to None.” Contributing discussion came from World Bank economists Shantayanan Devarajan (Chief Economist, Africa Region) and Vikram Nehru (Director, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, East Asia and Pacific Region.) The event was moderated by the Apurva Sanghi, the Bank’s Senior Economist of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).
According to Prescott, a natural disaster is a natural risk that exists only if there are people around that can be hurt by it. He cited Hurricane Katrina, explaining that, “it was a disaster because people where living where they should not have been living.” He drew parallels between natural disasters and man-made ones in the context of the current financial situation, highlighting the issue of governments ability to credibly commit to risk reducing policies and actions.
Following the event, Devarajan and Nehru offered views of time inconsistent bailouts. The session concluded with questions and answers with from the audience.
60 Minutes With Nobel Laureate Kenneth J. Arrow
March 27, 2008 – 2 hrs 29 minutes
Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate) as discussant. Climate change is one of the defining issues of our times. However, there is little consensus among economists on the issue of impacts of climate change, and discounting and uncertainty are two key reasons why. This is especially true for climate change induced catastrophes (a topic that will be discussed in the Assessment). On March 27 2008, 1972 Nobel Laureate in Economics, Kenneth Arrow, and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University shared his views on discounting for projects that have payoffs in the deep and uncertain future. Thomas Schelling, 2005 Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland participated by providing critical commentary on Arrow’s presentation.
Will God - or Man - Play Dice with Nature? The ‘Tail’ of Catastrophic Climate Change
February 2, 2008 – 2 hrs 18 minutes
Presentation y Martin Weitzman (Harvard) with Richard Posner (University of Chicago), Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate) and John Seo (pioneer of the catastrophe bond industry) as discussant.
Discussions on climate change economics, policy, and related climate-induced disasters have so far neglected the possibility of catastrophic climate change. Climate scientists agree that though the probability is very low, climate change of cataclysmic proportions could occur and the effects would be nothing short of complete devastation. The event, “Will God- or Man- Play Dice with Nature? The ‘Tail’ of Catastrophic Climate Change”, held at the World Bank Headquarters on March 13th 2008 brought together a group of renowned economists and perspectives from the private sector, public policy, and development experts to discuss this issue.
Documents
Dealing with Low Probability- High Consequence Events: A Behavioral Economics of Risk Presentation [PPT]
Daniel Hahnemann (Nobel Laureate) and Howard Kunreuther (University of Pennsylvania)
September 24, 2008
The Challenge of Global Warming for the Global Economy Presentation [PPT]
William D. Nordhaus, Yale University
September 11, 2008